UKBB SEPSIS RISK TOOL
Comorbidity Pattern Calculator
Enter a person's ICD-10 diagnoses to estimate their multimorbidity pattern and see how their sepsis risk changes over time.
Research use only. These estimates are provided to support research interpretation and risk stratification analyses. They are not intended for diagnosis, treatment, or clinical decision-making.
Pattern probability profile
This panel shows how strongly the entered diagnoses match each multimorbidity pattern.
Sepsis risk over time
The chart below shows estimated sepsis risk at 1, 2, 5, 10, 15 years.
Estimated sepsis risk at each time point
About and methods
About this calculator

This calculator is intended for research use only. It summarizes multimorbidity patterns from ICD-10 diagnoses and displays the corresponding estimated sepsis risk over time.

Enter one person's ICD-10 codes in the input panel. BMI can also be added because obesity in this model is defined using BMI rather than ICD-10 alone. The estimates are intended to support research interpretation and should not be used for clinical decision-making.

Eligibility / Scope

This tool was developed using UK Biobank data and externally evaluated in the MIMIC-IV-ED cohort. It is intended for research use to support multimorbidity pattern assignment and sepsis risk stratification in datasets with broadly comparable diagnostic and covariate structure.

Performance in other populations, healthcare systems, or use settings may differ and should be interpreted in light of differences from the development and external evaluation cohorts.

Townsend deprivation index is a UK-specific area-level socioeconomic measure. It can be left blank when unavailable, particularly in non-UK datasets.

Methods

The pattern estimate is based on predefined multimorbidity features derived from the diagnoses entered into the calculator. The output shows how strongly the entered diagnoses match each multimorbidity pattern and highlights the most likely pattern.

The calculator first estimates multimorbidity pattern membership probabilities and then uses those pattern probabilities within the sepsis risk model.

Sepsis risk is estimated from time-to-event models that use the predicted multimorbidity pattern together with the clinical information provided in the form. Age, sex and race are required. When optional variables are not entered, the calculator automatically uses the matching model for the available information.

Townsend deprivation index is a UK area-level socioeconomic measure. It may be unavailable in many healthcare settings and should not be assumed to transfer directly to non-UK populations.

Citation

A formal citation for this calculator will be added after the associated manuscript is published.